Muscle Shoals, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS64 KHUN 310225
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
925 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 925 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Currently, we are watching a line of strong to severe storms
extending from northeast Arkansas, western Tennessee, western
Kentucky, and up into southern Indiana. Latest guidance shows a
capping inversion for our area and thus, little to no activity is
anticipated for the next few hours. The aforementioned line of
storms is expected to stay to our north and west during this time.
However, please use this down time to make any last minute safety
preparations - have your safe place secured and emergency kit
prepared!

An upper shortwave over the Midwest is slated to pivot over the
Great Lakes region through Monday morning, coincident with a
surface low pressure system moving over the same locations. A
trailing cold front from this system is expected to approach the
Tennessee Valley later tonight and progress to the southeast of
the local area by Monday afternoon. Furthermore, model guidance
shows a 35-40 knot low level jet that will prevail over the region
tonight.

Thermodynamically, the latest CAMs suggest bulk shear values
between 40-50 knots and SRH (0-1 km and 0-3 km) between 200-300
m2/s2 with curved hodographs just before 6Z. Additionally, mid-
level lapse rates range between 7.0-7.5 deg C/km. This, as the
previous shift mentioned, could point to the potential for larger
hail (1-2 inches). Model instability values also range between
1000-1500 J/kg, especially over northwest Alabama.

Ultimately, not too much has changed with regards to our severe
weather risk tonight. A line of strong to severe storms is
expected to enter northwest Alabama between 12-1AM and exit
northeast Alabama around 7-8AM. Damaging wind gusts continue to be
the primary hazard (higher confidence), but there is potential a
tornado or two, hail, and heavy rain/nuisance flooding as well
(lower confidence). PLEASE make sure to have multiple ways to
receive warning information tonight, especially ones that will
wake you up!

The severe threat is expected to wrap up around 8AM (by 10AM at
the latest over northeast Alabama). Low to medium chances (20-50%)
of showers will gradually shift to the southeast through the mid-
afternoon, with no rain forecast by the late afternoon/early
evening. With lingering showers and cloud cover for most of the
day, high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s are
anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday Night through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 925 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A brief period of weak, upper ridging will take hold Monday night
into Tuesday. Surface high pressure will also build over the
Midwest and extend down into the Tennessee Valley, but gradually
shift east through Tuesday evening as another storm system
strengthens over the central CONUS. Ultimately, no rain and mostly
clear skies will be the theme from Monday evening through
Tuesday. However, clouds will increase as the aforementioned storm
system pivots towards the Midwest and a warm front pushes north
over the Tennessee Valley. Surface winds will shift from northerly
to southeasterly Tuesday evening, ushering more moisture back
into the region. While no impactful weather is forecast for our
local area during the short term, unsettled weather and potential
for strong to severe storms will return for mid to late week
(discussed below).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 925 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A very active pattern will continue mid to late week across much
of the central and southern United States, with multiple rounds
of showers/storms occurring from the mid/lower Mississippi Valley,
lower Ohio Valley, Mid South, and potentially portions of the
Tennessee Valley.

On Wednesday, a fast-moving, deepening upper low will eject
northeast from Colorado to the Dakotas, forcing a front into the
mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley. Strong forcing from the
front, very favorable dynamics, and a very warm, moist, unstable
air mass will create an environment ripe for widespread severe
thunderstorms for locations to our northwest across AR/TN/KY/IL.
The main question will be how far south and east this boundary
will make it as a stout subtropical ridge centered over
Florida/Georgia will be building into the Deep South Wednesday
into Wednesday night. The position of this ridge (and the
aforementioned frontal boundary) will be critical in determining
where the greatest threat for severe weather and heavy rainfall
will be. Current guidance suggests that while we may get very
unstable during the afternoon/evening hours on Wednesday, with no
appreciable lifting mechanism in place -- the potential for
convection will be very conditional. This is because the much
better synoptic forcing/lift will more likely be displaced
northwest of the Tennessee Valley. Should this play out, our area
may not see much in the way of rainfall -- let alone severe
storms. However, should storms be able to get going across the
Tennessee Valley late Wednesday afternoon/evening into Wednesday
night, the thermodynamics will be very favorable for severe
weather, including tornadoes. We will have to monitor trends very
closely during this timeframe given the wider range of potential
outcomes.

The Tennessee Valley will remain wedged between the ridge to the
southeast and a stalled boundary to the northwest (with several
passing impulses interacting with it) Thursday into Friday. While
low to medium PoPs both days were maintained, extended ensembles
are trending slightly more toward convection remaining along the
boundary to the northwest of the region. The most favored area to
potentially be clipped by storms would be portions of northwest
Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. However, the nature of this
threat would be very conditional. By the weekend, a deepening
upper low shifting from the Great Basin into the Southern Plains
will attempt to phase with another trough amplifying over the
Great Lakes which may finally force the boundary through the
area. Better chances for showers/storms will exist, especially by
the late weekend. We`ll also have to monitor this window for the
possibility of strong to severe storms should the environmental
parameters still remain favorable.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

VFR conditions will continue at both terminals through mid-
evening. A line of strong to severe storms is forecast to traverse
the region tonight, bringing the threat of damaging winds, hail,
and a tornado or two. This will also result in reductions in VIS
(in the heavier showers) and CIGs down to IFR by 12Z or so. Lower
CIGs will persist through Monday morning before beginning to lift
over northwest Alabama late in the afternoon as a cold front
sweeps across the region to the southeast behind the line of
storms. Southerly winds between 5-10 knots this evening with
periodic gusts to around 20 knots, will shift to be northwesterly
Monday morning as the front moves through. Sustained northwest
winds around 10 knots will then be common by Monday afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 925 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation:

The Climate Prediction Center has included northwest portions of
Alabama in a Moderate Risk (40-60%) for Much Above Normal
Precipitation April 5th-6th. Precipitation exceeding 2 inches are
possible during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....AMP.24
AVIATION...26